Who Really Wins the US–Iran War?
China’s Quiet Gains — Explained Across Different Angles
Yasen Rusul
Strategic Geopolitics Series
Who Really Wins the US–Iran War?
The deepening crisis in the Persian Gulf — following the US and Israel’s military attack on Iran and the subsequent blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by both Iran and the US — is severely affecting the global economy. It has caused major disruption to vital international trade routes and energy supplies. Surging energy, fertiliser, and chemical prices, followed by rising food and essential goods prices, are putting extensive pressure on economies worldwide and pushing many countries toward recession.
Some people like David T. Ackerman and Antoine Halff argue that the war spiked China’s domestic fuel prices, disrupted critical supply chains for fertilisers and chemicals, and that the global recession would kill demand for Chinese goods — so China is losing the most.
Is that logic sound? We need to look at it from several different angles.
The Energy Crisis Angle
According to researchers, China holds around 1.4 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves — enough to last up to 104 days. China has also been increasing energy imports from Russia, Canada, Indonesia, Angola, Brazil, and Central Asian countries, and is using coal-to-fuel conversion technology to strengthen domestic energy stability. (Downs, 2026; Zhou & Downs, 2026)
The loss of cheap Iranian oil imports has had very little impact on China compared to the rest of the world. We have already seen energy import disruptions caused by the blockade of Hormuz severely affecting Europe, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, and others. Energy shortages in these countries have resulted in mistrust and have damaged relationships with the US that were built over decades. Even the US itself is being affected by oil shortages — for example, California imports two-thirds of its oil from overseas, has the highest fuel prices compared to other states, and is now facing a potential oil shortage. Fertiliser prices are also up by 50% according to news reports, the US budget airline Spirit Airlines has ceased operations, and thousands of workers have been affected. Inflation is climbing globally and making life difficult for ordinary citizens, but China has so far been holding up relatively well. (Al Jazeera, 2026a)
Also worth mentioning are the new land-based rail link from Iran to China and the newly opened Pakistan road corridor connecting Pakistani ports to Iran, both of which bypass the Strait of Hormuz. These routes are benefiting China by allowing it to continue importing oil and maintaining trade with Iran. (Al Jazeera, 2026b)
The Geopolitical Angle
With the US distracted from the Indo-Pacific, China has gained more freedom of movement around the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. While the US is tied up with the war against Iran, China is casting itself as a ‘peacemaker’ and trying to expand its influence over global politics more than at any point in recent memory.
The US launching the war against Iran without proper consultation with its Middle East partners and NATO allies has caused friction and mistrust, and has exposed visible cracks in those relationships. On top of that, the redeployment of marines and air defence batteries away from the Korean Peninsula and Japan has created real security and defence vulnerabilities across the Asia-Pacific region. The security vacuum created by the US in the Asia-Pacific has fuelled mistrust toward the US government and raised security concerns among its traditional allies in the region. China is now trying to fill this security vacuum, while countries like Japan are working to build stronger alliances in the Asia-Pacific to create a security buffer zone. (ABC News Australia, 2026; Asia Pacific Security Magazine, 2026)
In the Persian Gulf, following the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Iran retaliated by targeting not only US military bases in the region but also civilian infrastructure such as oil refineries and airports. The Iranian attacks on GCC countries exposed the vulnerability of the US security umbrella over those countries, creating mistrust and raising security concerns across the region. As a result, states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have started seeking alternatives, including new defence alliances with Türkiye and Pakistan, as well as broader defence partnerships with other world powers such as China. (The Guardian, 2026; The Middle East Eye, 2026)
The Technology and Intelligence Angle
China is gaining significant advantages from the US-Iran war by collecting real-time intelligence on US military capabilities — analyzing weapon signatures, drone performance, and electronic warfare tactics. China is believed to be supplying Iran with Chinese sensors, including satellite trackers, and is likely assisting Iran with counter-jamming technology and missile guidance system improvements.
Iran also appears to be using China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system to enhance the precision of its missile targeting.
China’s Clean Energy, EV and Export Dominance Angle
The Iran war has accelerated global demand for EVs, solar panels, lithium batteries, and infrastructure materials such as copper wire, cables, and aluminum — all of which China exports in large volumes. (Reuters, 2026)
Chinese EV exports surged by 140%. Solar product exports jumped 67% in March 2026 alone. China’s copper and aluminium exports have also remained very strong. (Bloomberg, 2026; Reuters, 2026)
Conclusion
When we look at it from these four different angles, we can come to the conclusion that China is silently gaining a great deal from the US-Iran war.
China didn’t start this war and it isn’t fighting it — but across energy, geopolitics, technology, and trade, it is quietly winning it.
References
Aljazeera. (2026a, April 30). Pakistan opens up road trade routes into Iran aimed Hormuz blockade.
Aljazeera. (2026b, May 11). This is America [program].
ABC News Australia. (2026, March 10). Fears Japan and South Korea left exposed as US moves defense assets to Middle East. ABC (Australia).
Asia Pacific Security Magazine. (2026, May 6). Japan’s effort to strengthen its Pacific defense.
Bloomberg.com. (2026, April 9). China’s EV exports jump to record as oil shock entices buyers. Bloomberg.
Downs, E. (2026, January 29). Where China gets its oil: Crude imports in 2025 reveal stockpiling and changing fortunes of certain suppliers. Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University.
Reuters. (2026, April 27). China’s clean-tech exporters cash in as Iran war hits oil and gas flows. Reuters.
The Guardian. (2026, April 10). Gulf states rethink security in light of US-Israel war on Iran. The Guardian.
The Middle East Eye. (2026, May 11). Gulf turns to Turkey for air defense systems amid Iran threats.
Zhou, Z., & Downs, E. (2026, April 30). China’s energy powerhouse ambitions. Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University.
May 2026
